“Hold and Win” They Said… Bitcoin Profitability Rate Falls to 59%

▲ Bitcoin (BTC), U.S. Dollar (USD) / AI-generated image

The proportion of Bitcoin (BTC)’s total supply currently in profit has fallen to 59%, signaling that the market has effectively entered deep bear market territory.

On April 9 (local time), cryptocurrency media outlet CryptoPotato cited data from on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, reporting that Bitcoin’s supply in profit ratio currently stands at 59%. This figure is close to the lows recorded during the 2022 downturn and the 2018 bear market, indicating that investor sentiment has become extremely subdued.

The supply in profit metric represents the portion of circulating Bitcoin whose purchase price is lower than the current market price. In a typical bull market, this figure exceeds 90%. However, when it falls below the 60% range as it has now, it has historically been interpreted as either a market bottom or a period of extreme downturn. As Bitcoin’s price has declined for six consecutive months, analysts suggest that even long-term holders are beginning to enter loss territory.

The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Z-score has also dropped to 0.60, flashing warning signals. The MVRV Z-score compares Bitcoin’s market capitalization to its realized capitalization to determine whether the asset is overvalued or undervalued. Typically, when this index falls below 0.5, it is considered a historical buying opportunity at market bottoms. However, given the intense downward pressure, the possibility of further decline cannot be ruled out.

Market experts warn that if Bitcoin fails to defend the $60,000 level, additional panic selling could occur. An anonymous on-chain analyst stated, “The current Bitcoin market is moving very similarly to the six-month consecutive decline pattern seen in 2018,” adding, “With retail investor fear at extreme levels, it will be difficult to secure a support level unless institutional buying flows in.” Bitcoin continues to struggle to find momentum for a rebound amid macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical risks.

Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses resulting from it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.